Trouble Times Ahead!

El Nino that brings the needed rain in the South Asian region is getting delayed sending alarm bells in the corridors of power in China and India, having the largest population in the world to feed. If the annual monsoon rains are insufficient farm production gets affected and a vicious cycle of low demand and low sales hits all the industries in the country. Farmers still constitute fifty to sixty percent of the population in these countries and if their produce shrinks due to insufficient monsoon rains, their purchasing power in the economy also shrinks diminishing the demand for many industrial products. While growth rates may be affected, these Governments also have the big responsibility of feeding their masses during these troubled times. Imports of food grains may have to be planned to meet the shortfall in domestic production. Even after decades of independence and self rule, agriculture in these countries is dependent on monsoon with great rivers like the Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra, Yangtze and Yellow River wasting into the seas due to inadequate irrigation canals!